The Summer 2025 State of M&A: Hesitation in the Heat
There’s no shortage of capital And yet, deals are stalling.
The issue this summer isn’t the cost of capital, it’s uncertainty. Markets are reacting to rising geopolitical tension and the unpredictable policy environment under a second Trump presidency. For Canadian business owners, that matters. A considerable portion of acquisition capital comes from U.S. funds and buyers. Currently, many of them are hesitant.
They won’t always say it outright. You’ll hear phrases like “timing isn’t right” or “cost of capital is high.” But the truth is more straightforward: they don’t know what the world looks like six months from now.
And in that kind of climate, confidence becomes a competitive advantage.
If you’re a business owner without a transition plan, or one who’s wondering if now is the right time to sell, this might be your moment. Not to go to market tomorrow. But to prepare and to understand what your business is worth. To figure out who might buy it. And to decide, on your own time, whether this is the path you want to take. Likewise, if you’re a founder who’s never seriously explored a sale, or if you’ve told yourself you’ll do it ‘next year’ for the last three years, we hope this gives you a nudge toward clarity.
What We’re Seeing and What Owners Should Know
You can’t make buyers move faster. But you can be ready when they move
One of the hardest things for owners to accept is this: buyers move at their own pace, and there’s almost nothing you can do to change that. Some are slow. That’s just reality. And if you want them to write a big cheque, they’ll take their time before doing so.
This is where seller expectations matter. Owners often get frustrated that buyers “should have an idea by now,” but the truth is, you’re asking someone to part with real money. They’ll only do that when they feel ready.
So what can you do? Build and maintain momentum. Momentum in M&A is like an engine — once it’s running, you want to keep it humming. Any excuse to slow down is a threat. And once you lose momentum, it’s incredibly difficult to restart it.
2. Scrambling after the LOI is too late. Prep work starts earlier than you think
In today’s market, due diligence is more drawn out, more intensive, and more invasive than ever before. If you’re not prepared in advance, it will slow or sink your deal.
Good advisors will start building a proto-data room early on. That’s how we develop the CIM, the data book, and the marketing materials. But truly savvy sellers go further, they war-game potential questions, identify landmines in contracts, and anticipate where a buyer might find “gotcha” moments.
If you’re scrambling after you receive a Letter of Intent, it doesn’t project confidence. And in M&A, confidence and storytelling is half the game.
3. Get clear on what you actually earn, not what you think you earn
The conversation around multiples is often a distraction. The more important question is: What’s your actual earnings base? And more often than not, owners are surprised by that number once we normalize it.
Sometimes it’s higher than expected. Sometimes lower. But it’s rarely what you’re casually telling people.
You can’t apply the multiple that your buddy at the country club mentioned on the 8th tee to your perception of your earnings. That’s not valuation, that’s storytelling. You need clarity. Clean financials. A normalized, reality-based EBITDA number. Otherwise, you’re just multiplying noise.
4. Don’t overlook buyers outside your bubble
Here’s something we see often: Canadian buyers can be risk-averse, especially when compared to U.S. or international buyers. That’s why we frequently advise clients to think globally, not locally. For the right business, a U.S. fund may view your company as a platform to enter Canada, which can open doors that a domestic buyer might not.
That said, Canadian and U.S. private equity groups remain very active in specific verticals where roll-ups are the prevailing strategy. We’re seeing aggressive acquisition activity in:
Trades (HVAC, plumbing, specialty services)
Automotive services and collision repair
Healthcare practices (e.g., dental, physio, veterinary, etc.)
Professional services like accounting and bookkeeping
If your business operates in a fragmented industry, you may be in higher demand than you think.
5. Use the summer to think, while we get you ready
Deals don’t happen overnight. Even in the best-case scenario, it usually takes 2–3 months to get a well-prepared business to market, and another 6–9 months for a deal to close. So don’t wait for the “perfect” moment to start thinking about your plan.
Use the summer. Pour a glass of wine or crack a cold beer. Think about:
Seasonality in your business (yes, it matters — here’s why)
What kind of buyer you want (strategic vs financial?)
Who your successor might be (especially in family businesses)
Whether you’re really ready to step back — and what that looks like
These aren’t decisions you want to rush. And while you’re reflecting, your advisor can be working in the background to refine your numbers, develop your narrative, and begin assembling the framework of your process.
6. Future models matter, but fantasy kills credibility
We get it: buyers want to see the future. So it’s normal to model growth. But please — skip the hockey stick.
If your earnings are suddenly expected to skyrocket right after a sale, it begs the obvious question:
If you could do that… why haven’t you already?
We made that argument ourselves when we were on the buy side. Diligence teams will always scrutinize aggressive projections, and most of the time, they fall apart under the microscope.
Reality-based, defendable growth projections carry more weight. They show maturity. And they help avoid uncomfortable questions like, “If you’re about to do so well, why are you selling?”
Final Thoughts
If you’re a business owner asking, “Should I sell? And should I sell now?” The truth is, no one can answer that for you.
But we can help you get clear on what your business is worth. We can help you understand what kind of buyers might be interested, what terms are realistic, and what’s possible in the current market. With that information, you can then decide whether the timing and motivation are right.
The worst position to be in is being caught unprepared when a decision is forced upon you by fatigue, health issues, circumstances, or a buyer knocking on your door. The best position? One where you’ve already done the work, with the proper guidance, on your timeline.
Even if you decide not to sell, you’ll be better for it.
And that’s what a good advisor should help you do: not just sell, but plan.
Ready to Talk About What’s Next?
Whether you’re months away from a sale, or just starting to think about it, we can help you understand your options.
No pressure. No pitch. Just straight answers and an honest take on what your business is worth and what selling might actually look like.
Still Thinking It Through? Here’s Some Real Talk:
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A: Probably, but not always right now. A good advisor will help you determine when and how to become attractive to the right buyer, and whether selling is the right move at all (And if it’s not, we’ll tell you).
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A: Private equity is still active, especially in fragmented industries like trades, automotive, healthcare, and professional services. International buyers are also looking at Canada, particularly as a way to establish a footprint.
Deals are still getting done. They’re just going to the most prepared sellers.
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A: Longer than most people expect. Even in a well-run process, you’re likely looking at 9–12 months from formal prep to close. Some buyers move slowly. That’s reality. The key is using that time wisely.
In fact, that window can be a strategic advantage. If you’re not ready to go to market yet, here’s how to use the next few quarters to increase your business valuation:
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A: That happens. And that’s okay.
What you’ll walk away with is clear financials, a stronger narrative, and better operational visibility, which still makes your business better. That’s not wasted work. That’s sharpening your axe.
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A: Nope. Some of our best client outcomes involve not selling, at least not right away. What we do help with is:
Understanding what your business is worth
Exploring who might be interested in buying it
And figuring out if you’re even ready to exit
Sometimes the smartest move is holding off. The point is to make that decision with eyes wide open.
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A: Maybe. But first, understand what your business is worth. One buyer means one perspective and one set of terms. A quiet, well-prepared process (even behind the scenes) creates leverage, even if you end up circling back to the same buyer.
We’ve written more about how to handle this situation here:
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A: You don’t have to. Many owners stay involved after a sale, in strategic roles, as consultants, or on the board. A sale doesn’t have to mean walking away. It can mean creating space to focus on what you love most, while someone else carries the risk and grind.
And if your worry is, “What will I do all day?” — you’re not alone. We wrote a whole piece on that exact question:
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A: There’s no sugar-coating it, selling a business is a high-value, high-effort process. But the right advisor more than pays for themselves. We structure our fees to be aligned with outcomes, often combining a modest work fee with a success fee at close.
If you’re curious how that works, we break it all down in plain English here:
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A: We quarterback the process from financial prep to buyer outreach, through to negotiations and close. We manage the timeline, control the narrative, and create competitive tension. You focus on running the business. We handle the transaction.
If you’ve never been through a sale before, it can feel opaque. Here’s a deeper breakdown of what the process really looks like: